Britons and our next Prime Minister - What the focus groups tell us

In January, it seemed like it was a matter of when, not if, Rishi Sunak would get the keys to Number 10. Eight months later, Liz Truss appears the clear member’s favourite. We’ve put together highlights from our focus groups over the past eight months to map what changed.

Talking to the public in early 2022, no other politician came close to the then Chancellor’s popularity. People liked the fact that he was serious and had performed well with furlough. This discussion in Blyth gives you a feel for his post-pandemic popularity. 

Liz Truss, on the other hand, was relatively unknown. Most people didn’t know who she was – some confused her with previous leadership contenders from 2016/9, that lack of recognition meant that at that point they weren’t talking about her as a future PM.

Fast forward to March, and Rishi continues to go down well and, following the early party gate revelations, was often more popular than Boris. But for the first time a few started mentioning Liz Truss as a contender, with her strong stance on Ukraine marking her out. 

The turning point came in April, when news about Sunak's family’s tax affairs emerged. For this group in Worthing, he went from being a PM in waiting to having ‘blown it’. Arising alongside real struggles with cost of living, the revelations jarred with the public.

His fall in popularity coincided with growing awareness of Liz Truss, while she remained relatively undefined, for some of this group, she was starting to emerge as a potential dark horse leadership contender.

That trend continued, while in some Blue wall seats in particular Sunak had defenders, who felt that the focus on his family was unfair, fo most he had crossed a line. Again, here in Hitchin, Liz Truss’s name was raised as a potential contender.

When the leadership contest began that left the two candidates with very different challenges. Sunak in the position of having to change the perception that members/public outside of SW1 had of him, while Liz had to make the right first impression.

Some assumed the public had moved past the tax revelations. They hadn’t. When we polled reasons that would stop someone voting for a leadership candidate, first was use of tax loopholes, third was Covid breaches. Just 10% said supporting other political parties in past. 

That challenge was confirmed in our Oldham focus group. Where the public just didn’t think that Sunak would be able to empathise with their lives and came across as tin-eared. This for them wasn’t about being anti-aspirational, but instead that we need a PM who gets it.

Truss, on the other hand, managed to parry Sunak’s debate question on having once been a Lib Dem/Remainer into a strength, it played into what has become a sense of plain speaking, normality and authenticity from her. Her response consistently landed well with the public.

The truth is people weren't looking for an heir to Blair in this contest. Our polling found the top traits people wanted were honest, competent and straight-talking. Only 1% said slick. Truss has presented herself as the candidate better embodying these traits. 

This became a relatively consistent theme in the groups. In Stoke, voters liked Truss’ plain-speaking and the fact she was a team player. In contrast, they recoiled from the fact Sunak seemed to interrupt Truss so much in the debate which suggested he ‘wouldn’t listen’. 

This became a familiar pattern. In our group for BBC Newsnight in Rother Valley, there were some hesitations about things people had seen about Liz on social media, but more worries about Rishi. Asked to pick, the group opted for her by a clear margin. 

Even in Uxbridge, one of the more affluent seats we visited, images of Sunak being out of touch had cut through and made the public sceptical he got it. Given how little cuts through from Westminster. I’ve been surprised how many times shoes have been mentioned. 

Ultimately, I think all of this has had a bigger impact on party members than gets credit. The members we spoke to weren’t obsessed with purity tests, for those who had preference for Liz over Rishi it came down to a sense she was more relatable, and ultimately electable

Campaigns are about meeting a moment. The change in attitudes over the last eight months showed quite clearly that, post April, this was unlikely to be Rishi Sunak’s, whereas Liz Truss had and took the opportunity to present herself as the better candidate for this moment

Blog first published as Twitter thread from @LukeTryl