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What 2019 Tory voters want to see from our next PM

  • Insight
  • 2 August 2022

by Luke Tryl

In our latest polling we also have a deep dive on what the four segments of the population who voted Tory in 2019 want to see from the next Prime Minister. Here are some of the findings. 

Since the last election, the Conservatives-Labour swing has been less dramatic among two segments (Disengaged Traditionalists and Backbone Conservatives) but larger among Loyal Nationals (more red wall) and Established Liberals (more blue wall). 
For all the segments cost of living remains the number one issue. But below the surface there are differences. Established Liberals and perhaps surprisingly Backbone Conservatives put climate change in the top three. All bar Established Liberals pick channel crossings.
Top Issue Segment 2022

There are also interesting nuances in why these segments went Conservative in 2019. For more blue wall, remain voting Established Liberals it was Tory economics with Brexit not ranking, for Loyal Nationals who are more like red wall voters it was getting Brexit done.

Why Tory Vote 2019

Ask voters in these segments what would stop them voting Tory again and the nuances are even more interesting. For Established Liberals weakening climate commitments would most deter them from voting Tory. For the other three segments it would be the threat of tax rises.

Stop Tory 2024

And some other nuances. Offering another Scottish independence referendum would be a deterrence for many in the Tory coalition voting Conservative again, as would weakening Britain's support for Ukraine among three of the four segments.

This analysis of the Tory voting segments confirms what others have found - majorities of all four of the segments who backed the Conservatives in 2019 want to see the new leader continuing to work towards a 2050 net-zero target, particularly Established Liberals. 

Tories And NZ

What issues do the Tory 2019 coalition want the next Tory leader to focus on? Once again, cost of living dominates. But beyond that the segments have different priorities. Segments closer to red wall voters place a premium on lowering taxes and reducing asylum seeker numbers.

PM In Tray Priorities
But what you might call more traditional Tory segments prioritise public service backlogs. Established Liberals want to see action on climate change as a top priority for the new PM. Backbone Conservatives also put making a success of Brexit in their top three. 
What surprised me, and this was borne out in individual tax questions too, was the extent to which Loyal Nationals are more in favour tax cuts than Backbone Conservatives. Notion that red wall doesn't care about tax as much as traditional Tories doesn't seem to be true.
Blog first published as a Twitter thread by @LukeTryl