New polling from More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab finds the public is still looking for the change that won Labour the election, but is not enthusiastic about disruptive populism.
Keir Starmer has often been criticised for lacking a clear vision and plan for government. With his early months in government being characterised by ambiguity, the defining policies have been deeply unpopular decisions such as the means testing of winter fuel allowance. In this context, it's little surprise that Keir Starmer's personal approval dropped dramatically after the election - faster than any newly elected Prime Minister in living memory.
However, in the last week in response to his leadership on the war in Ukraine, Starmer’s personal approval ratings have risen significantly from -39 to -28. While his overall approval remains underwater, in the last week his approval has improved with every voter group - most significantly with Labour and Reform UK voters.
This uptick in approval suggests a way forward for the Starmer premiership. In his handling of the Ukraine crisis Starmer has managed to project a reassuring pragmatism, that combines being both unafraid to be bold with a willingness to find compromise. Crucially he has projected a clear sense of direction to the public that they haven't seen from his premiership to date.
Reset to tackle disillusionment
Building on that sense of direction will now be vital. Foreign policy may have given the Prime Minister a bounce - but it is domestic delivery that will be needed to address the most defining feature of politics in 2025 - a sense of disillusionment. When asked if things in the UK are improving or getting worse, 72 per cent say they are going downhill, while only eight per cent believe they are getting better.
Little appetite for a British Trump
There has never been an appetite in the British public for our own version of Trump. And there is an even deeper aversion to any sense that Keir Starmer should try to mimic his US counterpart. The British people are desperate for change, but they are far from Trumpian. They do not want to move too fast. And they certainly don’t want to break things.
The government’s voter coalition is fragmenting
Labour are holding barely two thirds of their 2024 vote - their coalition is both broad and disparate coalition, and appears to agree on little except for having had enough of the last government. What unites this coalition however is a real desire for action on the cost of living, on the NHS and on immigration - domestic delivery combined with a genuine sense that politicians respect them.
“Lifelong Tory voter, first time voting Labour because I’d just had enough of the sleaze from the Tories, and these guys have just told a pack of lies to get in and they're pretty much doing the same thing.”
George, plumber, Finchley
Labour’s lost voters have splintered in three directions - roughly of equal size - to Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. Leaking votes on any side of their coalition could damage Labour electorally. Based on a uniform swing model, a swing of just one point on current voting intention from Labour to either Reform or the Liberal Democrats would make the Conservatives the largest party.
Labour’s mandate for change
Seven in ten British voters said the General Election gave Starmer a mandate to radically change the country. For 2024 Labour voters, the mandate for change in the NHS and on the economy were strongest. But the government is not yet associated with change - Britons are twice as likely to say that the Labour government feels like “more of the same” compared to the previous Conservative government than genuinely different.
“It's been a really weird six months to be honest. And I think that a lot of people who, including myself, who voted for Labour are actually quite disappointed with how things have been going so far (...) it just feels like they're in a sort of a bit of a limbo at the moment.”
Phillip, HR director, Chipping Barnet
Appetite for change is broad
There is a broad sense among Britons that many areas of public life are in need of change. A majority think that the immigration system, NHS, the economy and the criminal justice system are in need of radical change. Those intending to vote Reform UK believe that most aspects of Britain are in need of radical change.
Slow progress is blamed on political leadership
Britons think that government ministers have the most control over what happens in the country (50 per cent) followed by big businesses (29 per cent). The public is more likely to say the civil service delays the government getting things done (41 per cent) rather than helps (31 per cent). However, blame for the slow pace of change is placed primarily at the feet of Britain’s political leaders.
Reform voters’ expectations of change
In engaging with Reform voters, the Government faces the challenge of falling between two stools - Reform voters are more likely than average to both think Keir Starmer wants to radically change things and more likely to think Keir Starmer does not want to change things. This matters because while Labour is more trusted to look after people in need and fix the NHS, more trust Reform to change the country.