Farage's MAGA Mirage?

The rise of Reform

Since the party's success in the 2024 General Election, Reform's vote share has continued to climb. They now regularly tie or lead the two main parliamentary parties.

As of late February, Reform's vote share has risen by nine points to 24 per cent, gaining ground among women, non-voters, and defectors from both Labour and the Conservative Party. The party has built a broader and more diverse coalition.

Voters appear to be increasingly willing to listen to what Nigel Farage has to say. In focus groups, Reform's supporters describe the party leader as honest, relatable and down-to-earth, a stark contrast to the perceived out-of-touch political establishment.

"I think he's a bit more straight-talking. I know he might say things that people don't agree with, but for me when you listen to some of the leaders of the Labour and the Conservative Party (...) they don't say anything significant. Whereas Nigel Farage, you might not always like what he says, but he seems to be very straight-talking."
Amy, college administrator, Doncaster

A growing number of Britons now see him as a credible candidate for Downing Street. Each week, we ask Britons which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister. Farage now often ties Keir Starmer, though ‘none of the above’ still wins by a landslide. Only in the past week - following a significant few days on the international stage - has Keir Starmer gained a lead of several points.

As Reform’s vote share has expanded, its support base has diversified. Compared to the party’s 2024 voters, Reform’s new supporters are less male, less online and - on a range of issues - more moderate.

In the General Election, around 58 to 60 per cent of Reform voters were men. By mid-February (when the party’s vote share reached a peak), this had fallen to 52 per cent among new supporters, suggesting the gender gap may be starting to narrow.

Furthermore, Reform’s new supporters seem to be less aligned with the online right than their 2024 voter base: they are 7 points less likely to post political content on social media, and far less likely to approve of prominent and controversial figures like Elon Musk and Tommy Robinson.

Reform’s challenge now is to convert its momentum into durable credibility. To retain its new, often more moderate, voters and continue growing, the party must broaden its appeal to reach the exhausted majority who will decide the next election.

Despite Reform’s strong performance, recent weeks have exposed barriers to Reform as it seeks to reach Downing Street. Our research suggests that Nigel Farage’s relationship with President Trump, his equivocal stance on Ukraine and the raft of anti-renewable policies risk lowering Reform’s ceiling of support.

Barriers to voting Reform

1. Nigel Farage’s relationship with President Trump.

Given a list of potential reasons not to vote for Reform, Farage’s support for President Trump emerges on top, selected by more than a third of Britons (37 per cent). Also high on the list of barriers was the party’s values (selected by 34 per cent), racism in Reform’s ranks (31 per cent), and the party being too right-wing (31 per cent).

The proportion of Britons who are deterred from Reform due to Farage’s connection to Trump has increased following Trump’s return to the White House: immediately after the UK General Election, 29 per cent of Britons said that Farage’s connection to Trump was a barrier. That has increased by eight points, moving from the fourth most common reason to the first.

50 per cent of Britons see Farage as “in Trump’s pocket” - something that 69 per cent of Britons see as a negative thing for a politician to be, including 47 per cent of Reform voters.

Half of the public (49 per cent) see Nigel Farage as “Britain’s Donald Trump”, a perception that six in ten (61 per cent) think is a negative thing for a politician, compared to only 18 per cent who see it positively.

Notably, Reform voters are just as likely as the wider public to see Farage as a British Trump. However, while the public tend to see the comparison as an indictment, Reform voters embrace it: 54 per cent see Farage’s similarity to Trump positively, compared to only 24 per cent who see the parallel as a bad thing for a politician.

2. Climate change

The risks of Reform UK’s association with Trump extend beyond personality and into policy.  One example here are the party leadership's positions on climate change and renewable energy. 

The need to tackle Climate change is not a highly polarised issue in the UK: Britons across the political spectrum express concern about climate change.

In fact, our analysis has shown that there is not a single constituency in the UK where less than half of voters are concerned about climate change. In Nigel Farage's own seat of Clacton, 68 per cent of Britons are worried.

Britons overwhelmingly support renewable energy, with three quarters believing that the UK should invest in renewables, and only a tenth disagreeing.

For many Britons, the value of renewables goes beyond climate concern, and is seen as key to energy security and independence - values that are crucial to Reform's voter base.

“We don't want a situation where we're beholden to foreign countries, particularly if not particularly friendly, like Russia where they can just switch the pipe off whenever they want”
Graham, civil servant, Doncaster

Reform may be mistaking the anxiety about the cost and fairness of particular paths to net zero with a wholesale rejection of renewable energy. Even Britons who oppose the net-zero  by 2050 target are more likely to support than oppose investment in renewable energy.

Those who have begun to back Reform since the 2024 General Election seem less convinced by anti-net-zero arguments than their 2024 voter base.

Compared to their earlier supporters, new backers are more likely to favour renewable energy investment, view the 2050 net-zero target positively (though they are still more likely to oppose it).

3. The war in Ukraine

The third and most salient risk for Reform UK is the war in Ukraine and being seen to endorse Trump’s hostile approach to the Ukrainian President.

The war in Ukraine matters for Briton’s and an approach which is seen to be equivocal or worse hostile, risks ending up on the wrong side of the public’s sense of justice and national pride.

Britons overwhelmingly believe that Ukraine's defence is important to the UK, including seven in ten Reform voters. In order to enter the mainstream of British politics, Farage may need to demonstrate a real commitment to Ukraine's defence.

Following Donald Trump's feud with Volodymyr Zelensky, our polling shows that the US President's narrative on the Ukrainian leader is at odds with British public opinion.

Only 13 per cent of Britons - and less than a quarter of Reform voters - believe that Zelensky is a dictator, roughly the same proportion as those who say the same about Emanuel Macron. In contrast, eight in ten Britons describe Vladimir Putin as a dictator.

Britons also broadly approve of Zelensky's handling of the war - whereas Donald Trump's net approval rating on Ukraine is -37, higher only than Putin himself. In focus groups, Britons express a fear that Trump's unpredictability on Ukraine may have damaging consequences for the UK and the rest of the world.

"I think probably at the moment, Donald Trump is the biggest issue we've got. Due to the fact that what's happening globally is going to affect Britain massively in the next few months and years. So that's going to hit the side I think."
Sean, Engineer, Llanelli

What's more, many Britons have responded with shock to the public meltdown in the Oval Office last Friday. Asked to describe how they felt watching or hearing about the argument, the most common word was "disgusted", while many Britons referred to Trump and Vance as "bullies".

Almost two thirds of Britons (64 per cent) believe that Donald Trump and JD Vance - rather than Zelensky - are to blame for the public dispute in the Oval Office, compared to only 9 per cent who blame Zelensky. In the case of a future public fallout between the American and Ukrainian presidents, Britons want to see Keir Starmer throw his support behind Zelensky.

Here, there is another notable difference between Reform's 2024 voter base and the party's new supporters: while 2024 Reform voters lean toward the view that Starmer should side with Trump, new Reform supporters want to see him support Zelensky. 

Reform risks alienating their newer, more moderate converts with a stance which is unsupportive of the Ukrainian President many view as exceptionally brave.

The MAGA Mirage

Emulating his transatlantic ally may appeal to Nigel Farage’s most ardent and engaged supporters, but it risks imposing a ceiling on Reform’s growth.

On Trump, on climate change, and on the war in Ukraine, Reform UK is facing a choice -  animating their core base of dedicated voters who backed them in 2024, or adopting positions more in line with that of their newer voters and the voters they need if Nigel Farage is serious about becoming Prime Minister.