We hear from voters in Hull East, the lowest-turnout constituency, about why this time round they'll be staying at home.
“I work for the NHS so nothing good comes out of elections for me… no-one cares.” was how Hameder, a trainee nurse explained why she would not be voting in next week’s General Election.
Hameder was one of a group of non-voters More in Common brought together in Hull, a city which saw some of the lowest turnout in the country at the last General Election. While Westminster may be abuzz with the latest developments in gamblegate or Starmer’s views on Jeremy Corbyn, this group felt that politics was irrelevant to their day-to-day lives, and where it did have an impact it was unlikely to be positive.
Michael, a service engineer, described politicians as ‘brainless monkeys’, while Nathan, who works in customer support, was only marginally more polite, calling them ‘school kids’. Sam, who is hoping to start an apprenticeship, explained she felt bad sometimes about not taking an interest in politics and that her friends told her off for it but it was hard when “everything does feel in so much disrepair…. Everyone just hates politics and hates Rishi Sunak”.
While not everyone we speak to shares Sam’s views about the Prime Minister this group had little positive to say about a man they felt was “on another planet” compared to their everyday lives. As cleaner Natalie put it: “He’s come from money and that’s all it boils down to with him”. On Keir Starmer the group had nothing to say at all - a few struggled to identify him or which party he represented, whereas Michael only knew that he’d been told by colleagues the country would go to the dogs if he got in. Even Nigel Farage, who can sometimes reach voters other politicians can’t, didn’t engage this group. Ben, also an engineer, asked “Did he used to be the leader of the Labour Party before or have I made that up?”.
But if this group didn’t have much faith in politics or interest in politicians, they did have strong views on what was going wrong in the country. A country which they felt made you work long hours with neither anything to show for it, nor access to good public services your taxes were supposed to pay for. Nathan pointed out that NHS wait times were “ridiculous” while Natalie, talking about the cost of living, explained how she and her partner had cancelled holidays and cut out anything beyond day-to-day costs - “We’re living month to month… it’s just ridiculous”.
Was there anyone who this group felt was up to the task of turning around the country? Certainly none of the current crop of politicians. Instead their suggestions for who they might like to do the job of Prime Minister included Piers Morgan, Katie Hopkins and Martin Lewis.
There’s no doubt this was an extreme group when it came to their disengagement from politics. But having spent this election campaign speaking to voters across the country in over 40 groups like this it is striking just how deep feelings are, not just of cynicism and apathy, but of futility. Change election or not, most people we speak to don’t have any faith that things are going to get better.
New More in Common polling bares out what we hear from people directly. Rather than asking individuals about their own engagement with politics, which people often overstate, we asked about their friends and family. The results were sobering. Asked whether their friends and family were more excited or more apathetic about the election, Britons are almost three times more likely to say apathetic. Asked if their friends and family thought the General Election would make a meaningful difference to the country, barely a quarter (26 per cent) agreed. Perhaps most worryingly, 41 per cent said their family and friends were more disillusioned with this General Election compared to previous ones, while only seven per cent said they were less disillusioned - a stark downward trajectory.
That is why this General Election could be masking something deeper and more worrying than a simple Tory calamity. While Labour looks set to win a big majority, what unites our focus groups is a common thread of disillusionment, distrust and a feeling that the social contract isn’t working. Could we be following in the footsteps of France, another country in the midst of a snap election campaign? In 2017 Macron won a significant majority, only to see his Government’s popularity falter to the extent that today the far-right could emerge as the largest party. Britain is currently a long way from that - but if the new Government isn’t seen to be fixing “Broken Britain'' quickly, there is every chance that apathy turns to discontent. That discontent combined with growing electoral volatility could mean a weakened Conservative Party, that even a large Labour majority soon faces pressure from the populist right and left or more people simply withdrawing from the democratic process entirely.
If that sounds overly gloomy, what was perhaps most revealing about the conversation with residents in Hull was when they were asked what advice they would give the incoming Prime Minister on 5th July and Sam summed up their thoughts “There’s not much that I want them to do… It’s more that you want them not to make things any worse.”