Our latest polling data reveals the Scottish public's views on independence, the major parties, and the new Labour government in Westminster.
Scottish Independence
The poll finds a narrow lead for the ‘no’ vote - albeit a tight race and within the statistical margin of error.
If the independence referendum was held today, how would you vote?
- For Scottish Independence - 40%
- Against Scottish Independence - 44%
- I would not vote - 8%
- Don’t know - 8%
Interestingly, the age divide on support for independence persists, but the youngest age group (16 - 24) are no more in favour of independence than the age group above them (25-34.
Scots don’t think independence is likely any time soon, with almost half saying they don’t think Scotland will be independent in their lifetime, and a further one in five saying they don’t know.
Do you think Scotland will become an independent country in your lifetime?
- Yes - 30%
- No - 48%
- Don't know - 22%
Of those who back independence, 58% think Scotland will be independent in their lifetime.
What do Scots make of our new Westminster government?
The SNP wipeout in Scotland played a major role in Labour’s victory at this General Election, but the new government is already off to a rocky start with the Scottish public. The Labour Party’s approval rating has dropped by 11 points, while Starmer’s has plummeted by 14 points, leaving him with a net approval rating of -20.
The only silver lining for the Labour Party is that they still poll significantly higher than the SNP, despite Starmer’s approval rating slipping below that of First Minister John Swinney.
The full results of the poll were as follows (with changes from June 2024):
- The Labour Party: -13 (-11)
- Keir Starmer: -20 (-14)
- Anas Sarwar: -14 (No change)
- The SNP: -29 (-4)
- John Swinney: -18 (-3)
- The Conservative Party: -56 (-1)
- Douglas Ross: -37 (New data)
Who does Scotland trust?
Public trust in major political parties is generally low in Scotland. Labour leads, with 43% of people expressing some level of trust in the party to act in Scotland's best interest, followed by the SNP at 39%.
Reform UK and the Conservatives are tied for the lowest trust levels, with only 21% trusting them to do the right thing for Scotland.
Trust in political parties varies significantly based on views about Scottish independence. Independence supporters are nearly five times more likely to trust the SNP than opponents, and are far less likely to trust Labour or the Conservatives.
Who is to blame for the spending cuts: Holyrood or Westminster?
In early September, the Scottish Finance Secretary announced £500 million in spending cuts. The SNP blamed the UK government, stating, “Were Scotland an independent country, we would not be paying the price for bad decisions made at Westminster.” However, opposition MPs have accused the SNP of overspending.
Our research shows that 44% of Scots blame Westminster for the cuts (24% blaming Labour, 20% blaming the Conservatives), while 31% believe that the SNP are responsible.
Opinions on this issue are divided sharply along the independence debate, with anti-independence Scots nearly six times more likely to blame the SNP than those who support independence.
This dynamic presents interesting implications for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. If public trust in political parties - and the blame for unpopular policies - remain polarised along lines of the independence debate, Labour could face significant challenges in maintaining its public support in Scotland, particularly if more “tough decisions” are to come.