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New research from the UCL Policy Lab and More in Common conducted during the first stages of General Election campaign terms finds that voters are placing a “respect test” on political parties. The research reveals that one of the biggest drivers of those who have switched their vote from Conservative to Labour since 2019 is a feeling that Keir Starmer and Labour are more likely to ‘respect voters like them’ - a group of voters More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab call the ‘Respect Switchers’.
This election cycle ‘showing respect to ordinary people’ is the most important attribute that the public want in a politician - even above having new ideas and getting things done. Two thirds of the public (65 per cent) consider it to be a very important attribute - higher than ‘gets things done’ and is a ‘good manager of people’.
More in Common’s seven segments of the electorate help to shed a new light on the extent to which passing a ‘respect test’ is allowing Labour to stitch together a broad based coalition of voters.
The importance of ‘respect for ordinary people’ is something that unites the segments that make up Labour’s base - Progressive Activists who were among the strongest supporters of Jeremy Corbyn 2019 and also Civic Pragmatists who reflect Labour’s soft-left support. However, the respect frame also appeals particularly strongly to the Loyal National segment. The group of socially Conservative voters who abandoned Labour in 2019, leading to their defeats in the Red Wall. 72 percent of this group say showing respect for ordinary people’ is a very important attribute for a political leader. In short, Starmer's focus on respect is uniting urban progressives and Red Wall voters in towns across the country - giving Labour their broadest electoral Coalition in decades.
The only politician with a net positive respect score (+8 points) is Keir Starmer. Overall five of the seven segments of the population say that Keir Starmer respects people like them - far more than say the same of any other politician. Progressive Activists and Civic Pragmatists who make up the Labour base, more economically insecure Disengaged Battlers, Established Liberals, the more liberal, economically right leaning voters, who will determine the fate of the blue wall and Red Wall Loyal Nationals.
Both Rishi Sunak and Nigel Farage lag behind on voters’ ‘Respect Test’. Only the most Conservative of the seven segments (Backbone Conservatives) of the population say that Nigel Farage or Rishi Sunak respects people like them. In contrast, Jeremy Corbyn only has a positive net respect score with the most left leaning of the seven segments of the electorate - Progressive Activists
At the heart of Starmer and Labour’s consistently high polling leads over the last two years are Conservative-Labour switchers. These are voters who voted Conservative in 2019, but are now intending to vote Labour. Electorally, Conservative-Labour switchers have an outsized impact on Britain’s electoral geography for two main reasons.
The ‘respect test’ is a key reason why these voters have switched over the course of the last Parliament - both because these voters think the Conservative Party no longer respect them, and they are starting to feel that the Labour Party does respect them.
Conservative to Labour ‘Respect Switchers’ were far more likely than not to say that under Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour did not respect people like them (65% of these voters said Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour did not respect people like them, and only 14% said that Corbyn’s Labour did respect them). For this group, that feeling has entirely reversed under Keir Starmer’s ‘changed Labour Party’ with these switchers now significantly more likely than not to say they feel respected (69% of this group say Starmer’s Labour Party respects people like them versus 15% who say it does not).
Sunak and the Conservatives have alienated these voters because they are seen to have disrespected them. These Conservative-Labour switchers currently feel significantly more disrespected by the Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak (84% say the Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak does not respect people like them) than they did under Boris Johnson (72 per cent say the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson did not respect people like them).
While feelings of respect are driving Keir Starmer and Labour’s poll lead - and motivating many Conservative-Labour switchers - the challenge then is how to turn a ‘respect frame’ into an agenda for Government.
Only 12 per cent of the public are optimistic about politics. In none of the British Seven segments do more than 20 percent of people say that they are optimistic about politics in this country. A pervasive anti-politics sense runs through discussions with voters, with cynicism high and the feeling that Britain is broken. A politics of respect can be an antidote to this broad anti-politics feeling across Britain.
More of the public think both Starmer (39 per cent) and Sunak (56 per cent) put party first and country second, than those who think they put country first. Conservative to Labour switchers are significantly more likely to think Starmer puts country before party (69 per cent), however he still has a task to do to convince the wider public this is the case.
Ordinary and everyday improvements to people’s day to day lives are what the public must want from the next Government, and can provide the antidote to the anti-politics mood.
Asked what would counteract their feelings of pessimism about the country and make them feel more hopeful - more than half the public say the cost of living becoming more affordable (63 per cent), shorter NHS waiting lists (63 per cent), cleaning waterways of sewage (57 per cent), making it easier to book a dentist appointment (56 per cent) and having something to show for your hard work at the end of the month (54 per cent). This is in contrast to larger and more abstract policy promises such as net migration being reduced to the tens of thousands (38 per cent) or Britain rejoining the European Union (31 percent)
More than anything else after political rows about Brexit, the pandemic, partygate, the mini budget and the cost of living crisis, the public wants stability. Asked about a series of approaches the next Government should either aim for, 78% said the Government should aim for stability, while 74% said that the next Government should avoid chaos.
That desire for stability shapes how people are thinking about the type of change they want from the next Government. Overall 65% say the next Government should aim for change and 72% want to see fresh thinking. However, they don’t necessarily want that change to be radical - only 14% say that is something the Government should aim for whereas 51% say it is something to be avoided.
In short, the public wants the next government to embrace realism, but err on the optimistic side of realism. Aiming for realism has a support of 65 per cent of the public, while optimism commands a support of 69 per cent.
The UCL Policy Lab and More in Common are launching a brand new index to measure how well the two campaigns are connecting and speaking with the hopes, concerns and issues of ordinary people. Measuring five different dimensions of the public’s relationship with politicians, this new ‘respect index’ will track on a weekly basis the extent to which the two campaigns are managing to convince the public that they get it.
In week one, we find the Labour campaign scores 4.6 out of 10 on the Respect Index and the Conservatives combined score of 3.5 out of 10. Highlighting both Labour’s advantage and the work both parties have to do to properly convince the public that they respect people like them.
Keir Starmer has been building a new coalition of voters by convincing people that he brings something that has been lost in recent politics: a genuine respect for ordinary people, and especially for working people who have lived extremely tough lives of late. His whole approach to the election has been based on an effort to demonstrate this respect. That stretches from the stories he shares about his own working class upbringing to his scepticism of overly ambitious, grandiose visions that mean something to politicians but strike voters as pie-in-the-sky. It is a really compelling political strategy. But it also sets up important tests for government too. If Starmer wins power by convincing people that he respects them in a way other politicians don’t, then he will need to demonstrate that on the other side of the election too
Marc Stears, Director, UCL Policy Lab