Ukraine: three years on

Insight
24 February 2025

Days before Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington, our research finds that Britain is watching the unfolding Ukraine negotiations with worry and anticipation. Over the past few weeks, concern over the conflict has risen; the proportion of Britons who rank Ukraine among the top issues facing the country has doubled since the beginning of February. Many fear that any resulting peace deal will leave Ukraine vulnerable and Europe sidelined, while others worry the conflict could escalate into a broader regional war.

Despite this uncertainty, our polling shows that Britons remain resolute in their support for Ukraine - with opposition to Britain’s support for Ukraine limited to a small minority. As calls from international leaders grow for Europe to “achieve security independence” from the United States, the British public want a greater focus on security in what they view as an increasingly dangerous world.

How do Britons feel about the negotiations?

Many Britons feel a sense of anxiety and betrayal about President Trump's decision to unilaterally begin negotiations with Vladimir Putin: asked to describe how they feel, the top word was “worried”, with Britons also feeling “scared” and “concerned. Many also feel indignant about the negotiations, opting for words like “angry”, “disgusted” and “annoyed”. However, smaller numbers also select “good”, "positive" and "optimistic".

‘Winners and losers’

The British public’s concern over President Trump’s negotiations stems from a belief that any peace deal will favour Russia at Ukraine’s expense. Many foresee an agreement that benefits America and Russia while leaving the UK and its allies sidelined, and Ukraine at risk of exploitation.

A majority (52 per cent) believe Russia will secure a good outcome, while only 18 per cent think it will get a bad deal. By 46 to 23 per cent, Britons expect the US to benefit.

By contrast, the UK and Europe are seen as likely losers - just 18 and 17 per cent respectively believe we’ll get a good deal, while over half expect a bad outcome.

Ukraine is expected to fare the worst: 62 per cent predict a bad outcome for the country, while only 13 per cent expect President Trump’s negotiations to lead to a good outcome for the invaded country.

In practice, Britons think that this ‘bad outcome’ for Ukraine will take the form of territorial concessions and a loss of mineral resources: three quarters (73 per cent) think it is likely that Ukraine will have to cede territory to Russia, while 62 per cent think that Ukraine will have to give some mineral resources to the US.

Britons overwhelmingly see both of these as negative outcomes, but what else do Britons expect to happen as the conflict enters its fourth year?

Britons’ hopes and fears for the war in Ukraine

In focus groups, many Britons express a sense of fear that Europe is on course for a wider and deeper conflict.

“I feel like it's been lingering for a while and it's just, it's waiting until somebody pulls the trigger ... .I'd like to think that nothing would happen, but a lot more of me does think something is going to happen in the next year or so.”

Britons have several fears when it comes to the future of the conflict in Ukraine, alongside what they see as the most likely negative outcomes - Ukraine making territorial concessions and losing mineral resources.

Forty-three per cent of Britons think that some form of nuclear detonation is likely to take place. Thirty-six per cent think that a nuclear bomb will be detonated in Ukraine - 28 per cent think it will happen in Russia and 28 per cent think it will take place somewhere else in Europe. Unsurprisingly, Britons see these as the worst of any listed outcome.

On sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, Britons are more positive. Two thirds see this as a likely outcome, and by 39 per cent to 29 per cent, Britons see it as a positive outcome.

But at the heart of Britons’ concern is the impact on the conflict on Ukrainian civilians: three quarters (76 per cent) of Britons are worried about this, including 43 per cent who say that they are “very worried”.

Also high on the list is the impact on the cost of living in the UK, something 80 per cent say they are somewhat or very worried about. Large majorities are also concerned about the threat to the security of Europe as a whole, and Britain’s energy security.

“We don't want a situation where we're beholden to foreign countries, particularly if not particularly friendly, like Russia where they can just switch the pipe off whenever they want”
Graham, civil servant, Doncaster

Britons overwhelmingly approve of Zelensky’s handling of the war.

Presdident Trump and Elon Musk’s narrative on the Ukrainian president does not resonate in Britain: 51 per cent of Britons think he is doing a good job in handling the conflict, compared to only 16 per cent who think he is doing a bad job.

This gives Zelensky a net approval rating of +35, far higher than any other leader polled, and the only with a positive net approval.

In contrast, Trump’s net approval on the conflict is -37, higher only than Putin, who is on -58.

This support for Zelensky seems to hold strong across politics, with voters of every party more likely to approve than disapprove of the Ukrainian President; among Reform voters, Zelensky has a net approval rating of +4.

The words used to describe Zelensky contrast starkly with those used to describe Vladimir Putin: Britons consider the Ukrainian President to be “brave”, a “leader”, “determined” and “strong”. In contrast, Putin is described as an “evil” “dictator” and a “tyrant”.

Additionally, accusations that Zelensky has behaved as a dictator do not sit with British public opinion: two thirds of the public believe that it is acceptable for a leader to postpone elections in wartime, while only 15 per cent disagree.

Only 13 per cent of Britons consider Zelensky a dictator, while 68 per cent say he is not. Strikingly, nearly as many (9 per cent) say the same about Emmanuel Macron, with 66 per cent rejecting the label.

By contrast, 81 per cent of Britons see Vladimir Putin as a dictator, while only 6 per cent do not.

Even among Reform UK voters, less than a quarter (23 per cent) say Zelensky is a dictator - the exact same proportion as say the same as Macron. However, they are slightly more likely to say Zelensky (64 per cent) rather than Macron (61 per cent) is “not a dictator”.

Britons want Europe to be able to stand alone.

Following Friedrich Merz’ calls for Europe to ‘achieve independence’ from the US, More in Common’s research finds that the British public broadly want to see the continent invest in our security and independence. In recent focus groups, participants express the sense that Britain is no longer ‘great enough’ to stand up to countries like Russia and the US on the world stage:

“We forget sometimes that these days we're a very small fish in a very big pond”
Graham, civil servant, Doncaster

“I think probably at the moment. Donald Trump is the biggest issue I think we’ve got. Due to the fact that what's happening globally is going to affect Britain massively in the next few months and years. So that's going to hit the side I think.”
Sean, engineer, Llanelli

This concern manifests in what appears to be growing support for a European army – which Britons are almost twice as likely to support as to oppose.

43 per cent of Britons would support the creation of a European Army that includes British troops, while only 23 per cent would oppose this. On this issue, 2024 Reform voters are outliers: 47 per cent would oppose a European Army, while only 29 per cent would support it.