What next for the Liberal Democrats?

The challenge of holding the Liberal Democrat coalition together

Using analysis and insights from More in Common’s post-election Change Pending research and new post-election focus group research in Henley, North Shropshire and Surrey Heath, this briefing sets out the state of the Liberal Democrats’ current electoral coalition and examines the three challenges it faces on being a competent opposition, strong local champions and having a distinctive offer if it is to hold its coalition together at the next election.

Historic victory but flimsy foundations

The ties between the Liberal Democrats and their 2024 voters are relatively weak. More than a quarter (26 per cent) of Lib Dem voters said they voted tactically - the third most popular reason for voting for the party. Asked who they would have voted for if any party could have won in their constituency, only 57 per cent of Lib Dem voters opt for the party, a figure that is by far the lowest of any party. Those who voted Liberal Democrat also did so with little enthusiasm, with the party only marginally beating the Tories on this metric and far behind all the other parties. 

With the Conservatives now out of office, the strong anti-Tory pull is unlikely to be present at the next election, meaning the party needs to give voters a reason to vote for it.

Although the Liberal Democrats secured healthy majorities in their core target seats, some of their more surprising victories were delivered with narrow majorities. The Liberal Democrats would lose 21 seats with a 5% swing away from them with the Conservatives the challenger in 20 of these seats and the SNP the challenger in one.

If the 5% swing were to go the other way, there are 11 seats which the Liberal Democrats could pick up, 10 of which are currently held by the Conservatives and one by Labour (Burnley).

With Labour in second place in just 2 of the 72 constituencies held by the Liberal Democrats and holding just 6 of the 27 constituencies the Lib Dems are second in, the current battleground constituencies for the Liberal Democrats are almost entirely Conservative facing. If the Conservatives do pick up from their historical nadir in support, the Liberal Democrats will face significant pressure in retaining their 72 seats. 

Three tests for the Liberal Democrats in opposition

Faced with these challenges, our research finds that the Liberal Democrats need to pass three tests if they are to maintain (or be in with a chance of growing) their electoral coalition.

Test 1: Competence - Are the Liberal Democrats a competent opposition? 

The first key test facing the Liberal Democrats in this parliament will be shifting the perception that they can be a competent, serious and effective opposition to the Labour government. 

Both Liberal Democrat voters and the public more broadly don’t currently view the Liberal Democrats as being a likely source of effective opposition to the Labour Government. Asked who they think will be the most effective opposition to the Government over the course of the next Parliament,  24 per cent of the public opt for the Conservatives, with 20 per cent opting for Reform and just 13 per cent choosing the Liberal Democrats. 

The Liberal Democrats secure just half (50 per cent) of their own voters on this metric - showing the challenge the party faces in establishing itself as a serious, competent and relevant party of opposition - now occupying a large proportion of the Common’s opposition benches. 

While pure electoral politics will mean the Liberal Democrats will be competing - almost exclusively - against Conservative candidates in constituencies at the next election, our focus group conversations showed nevertheless that Lib Dem voters (including those who switched from Conservative to Liberal Democrat at this election) want their MPs to be effective opponents to the Labour government. 

The two opportunities the Liberal Democrats have to show their effectiveness as opposition to the government are on the NHS and the cost of living. 

Liberal Democrat voters are significantly more likely to say NHS waiting list reductions is how they’ll judge the success or failure of the Labour government. Three quarters of Lib Dem voters (74 per cent) say that will be among the most important metrics for the government’s success so holding the government to account on waiting lists should be front and centre of the Lib Dems strategy in opposition. 

On the cost of living, more than half of Lib Dem voters (56 per cent) say it's a key test for the success or failure of the government - showing again the importance of being an effective opposition on these issues. This priority on the NHS and cost of living is also true for those who considered voting Lib Dem and then opted for another party.

Test 2: Community - Is my local Lib Dem MP a community champion? 

Part of the Liberal Democrats’ success at this election can be explained by their reputation as local community champions. A third of Liberal Democrat voters (32 per cent) cite support for their local candidate as the reason they backed the party, the second most important reason why Liberal Democrat voters voted for the party. 32 per cent is significantly higher than the equivalent figures for Labour (17 per cent), the Conservatives (25 per cent), the Green Party (13 per cent) and Reform (6 per cent).

If the Liberal Democrats are to benefit from incumbency benefits at this new election, they’ll have to translate that support they received for being the local candidate into a record of being a local champion. 

One model for this might be following North Shropshire and Helen Morgan MP’s approach since her by-election victory in 2021. Between the two last two general elections, there was a 41.3% swing between 2019 and 2024 - the highest swing ever recorded in a constituency between two General elections. Morgan also saw her share of the vote grow from 47.2% at the 2021 by-election to 52.9% at the General Election. Speaking to a focus group of voters who either voted for Helen for the first time in 2021 or 2024, her strong local focus on delivering tangible benefits helps explain her success. Support for Helen Morgan was raised unprompted when people were asked why they backed the Liberal Democrats at the General Election.

This model of being a local community champion and being viewed as being on the side of local people is one which should work across Liberal Democrats seats and help the party hold its coalition together. It’s also true that any further electoral success beyond the recording-breaking results on July 4th would be down to the effectiveness of local campaigning. The 10 Conservative-held seats that would be in play for the Liberals on a 5 per cent swing to them from the Conservatives are all (bar one) neighbouring constituencies of existing Conservative seats. Local campaigning and establishing strong local champions will be a core part of any attempt to hold or grow the Liberal Democrat coalition further.

Test 3: Conviction - Are the Liberal Democrats distinctive?

While effective local campaigns are part of the reason for the party’s local success, the strong anti-Conservative tactical voting in this election means it is unlikely that community-campaigning alone will be sufficient to hold the Liberal Democrats electoral coalition together - not least if there is a Conservative revival under new leadership. 

From our research, there are two opportunities - on Europe and Climate - that show the opportunity for the Liberal Democrats to adopt a more distinctive politics and differentiate themselves from the government and other opposition parties. 

A closer relationship with Europe is the third most important issue that Liberal Democrat voters will judge the government’s success or failure on in five years time - after reducing NHS waiting lists and lowering the cost of living.  Liberal Democrat voters would also be significantly more positive about the government rejoining the customs union and single market - a net positive reaction of +34 for Liberal Democrat voters, similar to +35 points for Labour voters, +41 points for SNP voters, and in stark contrast to the potential backlash with Conservative voters -39 points and Reform voters -61 points.

Pushing back against any government u-turns on climate targets is also likely to be a popular opposition strategy for the Liberal Democrats. More than half of Liberal Democrat voters (51 per cent) say that Labour pushing back the timeline on green policies would make them feel more negatively towards the government  - a  net negative reaction of -33 points, significantly more negative than the -16 points and -18 points for Labour and the SNP respectively, and only surpassed by the -59 points reaction by Green voters. Reform (+14 points) and Conservative (+2 points) voters would weakly support a delaying of climate targets.

In line with this, our North Shropshire focus group participants revealed an openness to both Helen Morgan and the Liberal Democrats more broadly championing the case for a closer relationship with Europe and stronger climate action, although they wanted them to avoid dedicating all of their energy to these issues. 

Instead, they wanted campaigning from the Liberal Democrats on Europe and the climate to supplement a core focus on local issues and improving public services, where they saw the Liberal Democrats as having a greater chance to deliver tangible change. 

Creating clear dividing lines on both of these issues could also help the Liberal Democrats to grow their support. Similar trends on both Europe and the environment play out for those who didn’t vote Liberal Democrat in July but had considered voting Liberal Democrats and so creating dividing lines on Europe and the climate could help the Liberal Democrats gain the support of some of their potential voters. 

This is particularly the case for Labour and Green voters who considered voting Lib Dem who would feel more positively to the government by net +51 per cent and +56 per cent respectively if they rejoined the customs union and single market respectively and would feel more negatively towards the government if the pushed back the timeline on green policies by net -36 per cent and  -67 per cent respectively. 

The reaction of those who voted Conservative but considered voting Lib Dem to these U-turns would be more divided with net negative reactions to pushing back climate targets and rejoining the customs union and single markets of -13 per cent and - 2 per cent respectively. Nevertheless, there are sizeable Labour votes in the 19 seats vulnerable to a swing of less than 10% where the Liberal Democrats are second to the Conservatives - in each of these seats the Labour vote is larger than the Conservatives’ majority. Squeezing Labour and Green voters in these seats, which a distinctive position on Europe and the climate could help achieve, will be important for helping the Liberal Democrats to make gains off the Conservatives.

The only challenge to the Liberal Democrats' approach to a more distinctive opposition is in Europe. For the more than quarter of 2024 Liberal Democrats (27 per cent) voters who voted Leave in 2016, their approach to a closer relationship with Europe (if it involved rejoining the customs union and single market)  has  a net negative reaction of -24. 

However, such a challenge isn’t likely to be replicated in strong Liberal Democrat opposition to climate U-turns. The Labour government u-turning on climate targets would see a net negative reaction of -22 from Lib Dem leavers - comparable to broader Lib Dem voters who have an average net negative reaction of -33. Holding the government’s commitments on climate to account is likely to bring together rather than undermine the Liberal Democrats coalition.