On 30 per cent of the vote, Conservative candidate Paul Bristow is in first place with a lead of seven points in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority. He’s followed by Labour’s Anna Smith on 23 per cent.
Labour are losing votes to Liberal Democrats: 63 per cent of those who backed Labour in 2024 say they are planning to support Anna Smith in this election, while 17 per cent have defected to Liberal Democrat candidate Lorna Helen Dupre.
Progressive split
Unlike other areas of the country where the split on the right of politics is more consequential, in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough it is a split on the left that looks set to help the Conservatives take the mayorality. Labour and the Liberal Democrats sit on 23 per cent and 20 per cent respectively and a further nine per cent for the Greens.
In South Cambridgeshire, the voters we spoke with were also deeply disillusioned with the state of the country, and concerned above all by the state of the NHS and the rising cost of living.
I thought that (Labour) would help the work in class more and obviously maybe tax the super rich or the rich be more for the working class in the poorer society
Beverly, night care assistant, Melbourn
I think really overall we are in a very poor state to what we used to be. I mean just due to little things that count. You can hear as you said, I know we are led by the media and if we read or hear what it is true, we have to take their word for it. I mean, councils going bust. Why are they going bust? Why are children not being fed at school? They should be or why are they going hungry? I think overall we are poor compared to where we used to be.
Suzie, customer support manager, Orwell
Really, I think the NHS is in a real state (...) We need the NHS so badly. I think it's really sad that we are hearing about increased waiting times, people waiting in corridors, not being able to get the treatment, which really need.
Frances, SEN teacher, Melbourn
I do worry when I see things are going up in prices. I mean fuel heating, I mean it's not so bad at the moment I guess because the weather's good, but come winter when you hear about vulnerable people struggling to heat, that's not fun to see.
Dinta, cardiac physio, Melbourn
Police and potholes
On a local level, this disillusionment took the form of concern about crime and potholes, both of which were seen as symptoms of the deeper challenges facing the local area and the country as a whole.
I think crime is a big thing, which probably links in with what the other lady said, cost of living.
Suzie, customer support manager, Orwell
South Cambs is horrific for potholes.
Beverly, night care assistant, Melbourn
Social connection
Something else that surfaced throughout the group was a sense of social isolation, with many feeling that there was a declining sense of community in South Cambridgeshire. Without facilities or transport links to help people engage with the community, there was a sense that people were left with no alternative but to ‘shut their doors’ and withdraw.
So I think there's a sense of not wanting to do some things, shutting your door and not actually wanting to be involved with what's going on outside. And that really is not, these are villages (...) But they do lack some of the community spirit that was once there because people, they're commuter villages, aren't they? A lot of people live here, but they don't work here.
Jayne, retired HR director, Melbourn
It would be good to give the teenagers and stuff something to do because as I said, a lot of the villages haven't got anything. It would be good to have some sort of leisure facility. I think Melbourn didn't, Melbourn's swimming pool shut down.
Suzie, customer support manager, Orwell
‘Straight-talking’ Farage
Although not entirely convinced by the Reform leader, many found him refreshingly authentic, unafraid to say what others were thinking. They contrasted this with other major politicians.
I think Nigel Farage as well, he isn't actually frightened of saying things and he generally, if he's asked a question will answer it, where I find a lot of the other politicians will go right around the houses and they've talked about something and then you realise they haven't actually answered it. And I find that very frustrating
Suzie, customer support manager, Orwell
Methodology
More in Common polled around 1,000 people in each of the four mayoralties between 15-21 April. Respondents have been weighted to be representative of those mayoralties based on age/sex, education level, ethnicity, lower-tier local authority, and 2024 General Election vote.
To calculate the voting intention, the following turnout filter was applied: voters were only included in the headline voting intention if they gave their likelihood of voting in this mayoral election AND they said that they tend to vote in “most” or “every” local election.
Voters who said they do not know who they will vote for were asked a follow up question for how they would vote if forced to choose, and their votes were allocated accordingly.