More in Common’s Greater Lincolnshire Combined Authority polling shows Reform candidate Andrea Jenkyns leading on 33 per cent, followed closely by Conservative Rob Waltham on 30 per cent - both within the margin of error. Meanwhile Labour are in third place - with 17 per cent of the vote.
More than a quarter of 2024 Conservative voters plan to vote for Andrea Jenkyns, while only 63 per cent plan to vote for Conservative, continuing the trend of defections from the Conservatives
Labour losing 2024 voters
Only 64 per cent of those who voted for Labour in last year’s General Election plan to vote for Jason Stockwood in this election, while 13 per cent will vote Green and 8 per cent will vote Reform.
Despite limited support for Labour, voters in Lincolnshire tend to approve of the Government’s handling of the British Steel crisis. 47 per cent of those who plan to vote in this election approve of the Government’s response, compared to 29 per cent who disapprove.
Disillusionment Dominant
In our focus group conversations in Lincolnshire, political disillusionment and frustration with the status quo dominated the conversations. Participants in Lincolnshire felt that there was little difference between the main parties, with some ready to give up on politics altogether.
I've actually given up on the system, if I'm being totally open and honest with you. Yeah, nothing really changes ever. You go from one bunch of lying so-and-so’s to the next lot it would seem, even locally (...). It's almost, this is going to sound really extreme, but the country almost needs a coup-d’etat and it needs somebody to almost come in and say, ‘right, this is what we're doing and you will conform’ (...) There's no proper leadership by anybody. Nobody likes any of the candidates. Nobody really trusts any of them. It's almost like we need the king to just say, right, I'm in charge and this is what we're doing. So yeah, just a little bit disillusioned with it all.
Gary, sales manager, Boston
I think the government, when they're looking to be elected, they promise you the world and say that they're going to deliver this, but as Candice said, with the winter fuel allowance, the TV licence and then it's still that old saying in it robbed, robbed the port to rob the par rather than the rich, if you know what I'm saying. And I think for me, I think it's about what I take home in my pay packet and there's nothing really that I see any difference with the previous government and this government
Rachel, office manager, Scunthorpe
Caution on Farage
Despite agreeing with the Reform leader on immigration, many members of the group were apprehensive about Nigel Farage - questioning his connection to Trump and wondering whether Reform has what it takes to be more than a single-issue party. But despite these misgivings, there was a sense that it was worth giving Reform a try - if only to ‘shake up’ the system and challenge the two main parties.
I do kind of like him as a person, and obviously illegal immigration is a massive problem. But that's the main thing that you think of when you think of Nigel Farage, but it's like there's a lot more to running the country than just sorting that out. But is it the shock that everybody would need if a different party got into power to shake things up and make real changes for decent hard-working people.
Catherine, purchase ledger clerk, Scunthorpe
How about those jobs being a bit better paid and the real people that make this country go round are looked after a little bit more? And I think that's probably the majority of people's gripes. So Farage comes across that in that sense as being a man of the people and he'll make Britain great again.
Gary, sales manager, Boston
I wouldn't trust him because he was at Donald Trump's election or he was in the audience clapping and cheering. So anyone that sits alongside Donald Trump, I wouldn't touch.
Darren, project manager, Bourne
Steelworks front of mind
On the Scunthorpe Steelworks crisis, participants welcomed the government’s intervention, but felt the Government had left it until the last minute and should have acted sooner. Many felt uncertain about the future of British Steel.
And I already mentioned the steelworks sort of why did it take so long for the current government to step in and take any action and as someone else already said, where is the future, where's the future in that if we let it get to that point where it nearly closed and caused a lot of job losses for not just our area but the wider field, then is there a plan for the future.
Bernadette, customer service, Scunthorpe
I'm pleased it's happened because it saves the future of the steelworks and it protects the jobs of people here, but it's gone on for probably 20 plus years now where it's just cyclical takeover. So the question, is it a viable business where you can make profit and if it isn't, should it be a business? I think the bigger question for the country is it's our last steel works producing steel and we're in the midst of a potential World War III where we might need metal to make war ships and tanks and whatever else.
Steven, retired, Scunthorpe
Absence of Badenoch
Asked about the Conservatives, most members of the group said that they hadn’t heard much from the new leader. While some questioned why they had been so quiet, others approved of the party’s decision to take time to reflect before launching a policy agenda.
They’re trying to solve internal difficulties, trying to stabilise the party, they're not going to win the next election. I think they know that. So I think they want to try and reestablish themselves internally and then come back with a stronger offer with the next election
Steven, retired, Scunthorpe
Methodology
More in Common polled around 1,000 people in each of the four mayoralties between 15-21 April. Respondents have been weighted to be representative of those mayoralties based on age/sex, education level, ethnicity, lower-tier local authority, and 2024 General Election vote.
To calculate the voting intention, the following turnout filter was applied: voters were only included in the headline voting intention if they gave their likelihood of voting in this mayoral election AND they said that they tend to vote in “most” or “every” local election.
Voters who said they do not know who they will vote for were asked a follow up question for how they would vote if forced to choose, and their votes were allocated accordingly.