In Hull and East Yorkshire Combined Authority, Reform candidate Luke Campbell leads with 27 per cent, albeit in a very narrow contest with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats also performing strongly.
Fewer than half of 2024 Labour voters (who are likely to vote) plan to vote Labour at this election, with a third going to the Liberal Democrats. Only 45 per cent of those who voted Labour in the General Election plan to vote for Labour candidate Margaret Pinder at this election, while a third now plan to vote for Liberal Democrat Mike Ross.
Labour falls behind Liberal Democrats: On 22 per cent, the Liberal Democrats are within the margin of error of first place. Labour candidate Margaret Pinder, however, falls behind to fourth place with 17 per cent.
Support for Campbell
In our focus group conversations with Reform voters in Hull, it is clear that boxer Luke Campbell’s own popularity exceeds that of his party - with his working class background and local roots making him appealing to voters there.
He’s more relatable, a bit more trustworthy, he’s come where we’ve come from and knows what we’re going through (...) He’s a genuine born and bred Hull lad, the majority of people in Hull will agree with you.
Jodie, Nurse, Hull
He's a local lad. He's a working class lad from Hull that I think just genuinely wants to do and give back to his area.
Helen, Shop Manager, Hull
Even for voters who are more negative about Nigel Farage or Reform UK, many said that views on the candidate trumps their views on the party in this case.
I don't think (Farage) is trustworthy. I wouldn't trust him. I think he is someone who makes deals behind people's backs.
Karen, civil servant, Hull
Liberal Democrats on the left
Meanwhile, voters on the left in Hull and East Yorkshire are more likely to be supporting incumbent Hull City Council Leader Mike Ross from the Liberal Democrats - with less than half of Labour’s 2024 voters also voting Labour for Mayor, and a third of them saying they will vote for the Liberal Democrats. For some participants, their frustration with Labour stemmed from the freebies scandal, and was deepened by their perceived failure to tackle the rising cost of living.
Keir Starmer receiving gifts. It just seemed silly. I do believe they're making steps in the right direction as best they can, but maybe not fast enough especially I think all the focus for me is on cost of living. And I'm not seeing a lot of change there.
Peter, food production operative, Hull
The cost of living and healthcare and the NHS are top of mind for voters in Hull and East Yorkshire, followed by immigration and crime - issues that were all extremely pertinent in focus group conversations.
If you're on a decent wage and you’re still struggling, it’s dire for people at the bottom
Karen, Civil Servant, Hull
The bills are getting higher and higher, when's it going to stop?
Julie, Retired, Hull
On the Leader of the Opposition, the participants from Hull had little to say - although they remarked on how little they had heard of her.
I wouldn't know her if I fell over her
Helen, Shop Manager, Hull
Asked what the first Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire should prioritise, focus group participants gave a range of options - but a common theme across was that more effort needs to be put into improving the offering of the city centre and making the area more attractive to people who live there.
That whole city centre is just, it's just lost. It is empty units, empty buildings. There's a few little nice areas, but actually there's so much more to give.
Helen, operations manager, Hull
(Liverpool) were city of culture and built on it. We were city of culture and we've gone backwards.
Shirley, sales manager, Hull
Methodology
More in Common polled around 1,000 people in each of the four mayoralties between 15-21 April. Respondents have been weighted to be representative of those mayoralties based on age/sex, education level, ethnicity, lower-tier local authority, and 2024 General Election vote.
To calculate the voting intention, the following turnout filter was applied: voters were only included in the headline voting intention if they gave their likelihood of voting in this mayoral election AND they said that they tend to vote in “most” or “every” local election.
Voters who said they do not know who they will vote for were asked a follow up question for how they would vote if forced to choose, and their votes were allocated accordingly.