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While Labour candidate Helen Godwin holds a paper-thin lead in the West of England Combined Authority mayoral race, four parties are within the margin of error.
More in Common finds Godwin on 23 per cent, followed narrowly by Conservative Steve Smith, on 21 per cent, while Reform’s Arron Banks is tied with Green Party candidate Mary Page on 18 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats are on 15 per cent.
Labour, the Conservatives, Reform UK or the Greens could win this contest. Even the Liberal Democrats in fifth are in the boundaries of contention - with their 15 per cent within the margin of error of Labour in first place - meaning a Lib Dem win remains within the realm of possibility.
Cost of living front of mind
For people in the West of England, the cost of living crisis was top of mind. In our focus groups, participants worried the crisis would never end - with the rising price of essentials and lack of support available for families driving their frustration with the Government and politics in general.
The cost of everything going up (...) Feels like everything. I mean obviously you've got the cost of a pint and things like that, but obviously for essentials for people, just the basic heating and food and internet, everything's going up and wages are staying stagnant and there doesn't seem to be any support for anyone.
Will, insurance broker, Bristol
Oh it is definitely getting worse. Obviously just shopping for the family. I've noticed the last few weeks where I was spending sort of like 60, 70 pound a week has gone up easy to like 80, 90 pound.
Louise, cleaning business owner, Bath
For others it was the health service that was top priority, and a feeling that the system that was supposed to protect them in the bad times was struggling to meet the public’s needs.
It's lacking in investment. It's really struggling, long waiting lists and all the other problems we all know about, but if we don't fix it, we're going to have a system like America's Got where people just don't get any support or help. (...) I like the NHS because they've done a lot for me and I wish it was improved. I wish the doctors and nurses were looked after better. I wish the waiting list were brought down but it needs money and then the sort of policy to get money in there. It's expensive but it's necessary.
Tim, retired teacher, Bristol
Change too slow
Despite being an area of Labour strength in last July’s General Election (earning more than 40 per cent of the vote across Bristol South and East, as well as North East Somerset), there was a palpable sense of disappointment with the government’s first few months. In the West of England, the Labour Party has a net approval rating of -18, while Keir Starmer’s personal approval rating is -19.
In focus groups, some voters who had abandoned Labour to the left cited benefit cuts, alongside a wider sense that the government hasn’t delivered the scale of change they were expecting. While there was some willingness to give Labour more time before making a judgement, some felt that Labour’s performance in government was symptomatic of a wider problem with politics and politicians.
Yeah, I personally don't think they've helped at all, and they're doing the opposite to everything they promised. Help for the disabled, people on benefits are being affected more when I thought it would be the opposite to be honest. Yeah, everything’s so much worse.
Holly, personal trainer, Bristol
I think it's pretty hard to kind of get things done when they're trying to undo what's been done before. They've had 10 months to undo it so far and I think it's going to take a little bit longer to see some actual progress from them. But it is hard when you've got, you say, oh we're going to do this, this and that and then they end up not doing it. But I mean that's politicians for you, isn't it?
Georgia, dance teacher, Bath
It’s hard to judge because I don't think he's done anything, but our previous Prime ministers didn't seem to do anything either, so it's like what basis do we merit a prime minister? They all just seem useless front men for their rich mates.
Will, insurance broker, Bristol
Given this deep anti-politics sentiment, it is perhaps unsurprising that voters in the West of England are split across five parties, and that the qualities they most want from the new mayor are honesty and trustworthiness.
On a more international level, people wanted a leader who could handle the UK’s relationship with the US. Asked which celebrity would make the best prime minister, Hugh Grant from Love Actually was mentioned:
Because everyone loved him and I feel like it's very hard to get a landslide and majority vote and he seemed to stand up to the bullies of America.
Georgia, dance teacher, Bath
More in Common polled around 1,000 people in each of the four mayoralties between 15-21 April. Respondents have been weighted to be representative of those mayoralties based on age/sex, education level, ethnicity, lower-tier local authority, and 2024 General Election vote.
To calculate the voting intention, the following turnout filter was applied: voters were only included in the headline voting intention if they gave their likelihood of voting in this mayoral election AND they said that they tend to vote in “most” or “every” local election.
Voters who said they do not know who they will vote for were asked a follow up question for how they would vote if forced to choose, and their votes were allocated accordingly.