More in Common's pre-budget briefing finds a public deeply anxious ahead of the Budget this week - the top words that people use to describe how they are feeling are "worried", "anxious", and "nervous". Failure to handle this properly could push the public into a fulfilling doom loop where more people withdraw from politics altogether.
Into the doom loop
Britain is entering this Budget period with unprecedented levels of public anxiety. An extraordinary 68 per cent of Britons express pessimism about the upcoming Budget, reflecting a deeper malaise about the country's economic trajectory.
Nearly half (47 per cent) now believe the cost of living crisis will never end - the highest level since the crisis began - while 70 per cent say things in the UK are getting worse.
To some extent, this represents a successful expectations-management exercise from the Government, but the public are still likely to be extremely critical of any tax rises and spending cuts and are resistant to the Government’s “tough choices” narrative - 56 per cent believe that Rachel Reeves can avoid both tax increases and spending cuts, while only 26 per cent think she has no other options.
The impacts of this go beyond negative opinions of the Labour Party. Less than a third of Britons now think British democracy is working, and only a fifth think our politicians are up to the challenges our country faces. If Labour can’t prove this pessimistic public wrong, many more voters will turn away from mainstream politics altogether.
Labour's early challenges
Labour's post-election honeymoon has been remarkably short-lived. Nearly two-thirds (65 per cent) of the public say the new government feels like "more of the same" - including 45 per cent of Labour's own voters.
The party's credibility on economic management is also showing signs of strain, with their lead over the Conservatives on tackling the cost of living shrinking from 15 points at the election to just 8 points now. The Chancellor herself faces significant personal challenges, with her net approval rating plummeting 27 points since July to -29. Perhaps most worryingly for Labour, 30 per cent of the public now think it would be better if the Conservatives had won the election.
The public's budget priorities
The public has set clear benchmarks for judging Labour's success, with 63 per cent focusing saying that their ability to reduce NHS waiting lists will be the key way they measure the impact of this government.
However, the Chancellor faces a complex balancing act: while 54 per cent want the focus to be on keeping taxes low, there's simultaneous pressure to invest in public services.
A painless pathway?
Many rumoured measures for this week’s budget are deeply unpopular. Top of that list is plans to scrap the £2 bus fare cap - where 55 per cent oppose and only 21 per cent support. Decreasing pensioners’ personal allowances is also opposed 55 per cent to 26 per cent, and unfreezing fuel duty is opposed 55 per cent to 29 per cent. Is possible to see how any of these changes could bubble over into a politically toxic challenge for the Treasury.
While almost all options for increasing tax or cutting spending are unpopular, the research points to a potential pathway for the Chancellor. Changes to Capital Gains Tax and increases to employers' National Insurance contributions face relatively modest opposition, suggesting these could be viable options for raising revenue.