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Doom Loop Deepens

  • Research
  • 25 March 2025

In October 2024, More in Common published Doom Loop, a report on public opinion on the economy ahead of  the Autumn Budget. That study highlighted deep economic pessimism among the public, concern that things were going backwards and tough choices facing the Chancellor.

New polling from More in Common reveals that since the budget, this sense of doom has only deepened. The public are both deeply anxious and pessimistic about the economy, with little faith in the Government’s ability to make things better.

Read the full briefing

On the eve of the Spring Statement, the Labour Government faces three major challenges in public opinion: a challenge of tiredness, a challenge of trust and a challenge of toughness.

The tiredness challenge

The Chancellor will deliver her statement to a country that is already exhausted, anxious and pessimistic about the state of the economy. 

  • Four in ten Britons think that the UK is already in a recession; half (49 per cent) worry that the cost of living crisis will never end.
  • 61 per cent of Britons are pessimistic about the Spring Statement; only 16 per cent are optimistic.
  • 31 per cent believe that Britain is returning to austerity; 23 per cent think that austerity never ended.

A majority of Britons think that the UK’s public services, Government finances and the economy are in a bad state.

While Britons are now slightly more positive about the state of public services (57 per cent think they are in a bad state, compared to 68 per cent in October), perceptions of public finances haven’t shifted, and Britons are now more likely to say that the economy is in a bad state.

The trust challenge

The public thinks that the Labour Government has not been upfront about their plans for the economy, and have little confidence in them to improve the state of public finances.

  • Most Britons (53 per cent) think that Labour wasn’t upfront about their economic plans during the election.
  • 69 per cent think it is unlikely that Labour will improve public finances, 62 per cent think it is unlikely that they will improve public services; 71 per cent think it is unlikely that the Labour government will improve their lives.
  • 59 per cent  trust Jeremy Hunt more than Rachel Reeves to manage the economy; 58 per cent trust Mel Stride more.
  • Additonally, the public don't believe in the tradeoff between tax rises and spending cuts. 63 per cent think that the Government could avoid these outcomes by cutting waste.

The Chancellor is also facing challenging public perceptions.

Asked to describe Rachel Reeves in one or two words, the most common response was “incompetent”, with many also describing her as “useless”, “out of touch” and “out of her depth”.

However, the second most common word was “good”, with a number also referring to the Chancellor as “competent” and “determined”

Wordcloud

The toughness challenge

The Government have had some success in portraying themselves as tough: Britons tend to think the Chancellor and the PM are comfortable making tough decisions even when they're unpopular. However, the risk lies in ensuring that their tough stances on welfare and public spending are not seen as uncompassionate or targeting vulnerable groups.

  • People expect the ‘ultra-rich’ to be the biggest winners of the statement, while farmers, pensioners and disabled people are expected to lose out the most.
  • More than half say that the Government isn’t trying to limit the impact of their spending cuts on the vulnerable; 36 per cent say that they are actively targeting vulnerable people.
  • Changes to eligibility criteria for Personal Independence Payments are out-of-step with the public’s views. If not communicated effectively, they could risk evoking a similar reaction to decision to means-test the Winter Fuel Allowance.

Previous polling by More in Common has found broad political agreement among Britons that the welfare system should be reformed to help people into work. However, most do not believe that this is the primary motive for the  Government’s reforms.

A majority - 54 per cent - believe changes to disability-related benefits are driven by cost-cutting, while only 32 per cent think the aim is to encourage employment.

Read the full briefing