Mayoral Races on a Knife Edge

Key findings

In all four mayoralties, there is electoral fragmentation in every direction, with no candidate likely to win more than 40 per cent of the vote.

Both Conservatives and Labour are struggling to keep hold of their 2024 voters, with third parties rising and winning in many cases.

Focus groups reveal voters' despair at the state of Britain, and rising anti-politics sentiment.

Cost of living, NHS and immigration are top of mind for voters, as well as concerns about President Trump.

Disappointment with Keir Starmer, apprehension around Nigel Farage and perceived absence of Kemi Badenoch mean that no leader has wowed the public ahead of these elections.

Greater Lincolnshire mayoral race too close to call, with Reform UK narrowly ahead

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Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral race leaning Conservative

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West of England mayoral election too close to call, with four parties in the running

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Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral race too close to call, with Reform's Luke Campbell narrowly ahead

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“The most striking finding from our polling is quite how unpredictable the next week in British politics looks set to be, with three of the four key mayoral contests too close to call, the overall result is likely to come down to efforts to get out the vote. 

What we are seeing is that British politics has fragmented to an almost unprecedented degree - accelerating the trend in last year’s General Election as voters abandon the traditional main parties. That combined with the decision to move these Mayoral contests to a first past the post electoral system could see the winners elected on tiny shares of the vote.

If there is a unifying theme to these elections, it is the sense of disillusionment and frustration with ‘broken Britain’ that we heard in focus group after focus group. From the cost of living and the NHS to immigration and crime voters think the state isn’t working. 

For Keir Starmer there was frustration that the Government wasn’t moving quickly enough to fix Britain, and anger that measures such as means testing the winter fuel allowance weren’t in the manifesto. For Nigel Farage we found many voters liked parts of Reform’s pitch and desire to shake things up, but a worry he often went too far and concerns about his relationship with Doanld Trump. For Kemi Badenoch voters had little to say, with very few of those we spoke too aware of who the Conservative leader was. In short, Britons desperately want change, but they just aren’t sure who can deliver it. 

Luke Tryl, Executive Director, More in Common

Methodology

More in Common polled around 1,000 people in each of the four mayoralties between 15-21 April. Respondents have been weighted to be representative of those mayoralties based on age/sex, education level, ethnicity, lower-tier local authority, and 2024 General Election vote.

To calculate the voting intention, the following turnout filter was applied: voters were only included in the headline voting intention if they gave their likelihood of voting in this mayoral election AND they said that they tend to vote in “most” or “every” local election. 

Voters who said they do not know who they will vote for were asked a follow up question for how they would vote if forced to choose, and their votes were allocated accordingly.

In low-turnout elections, accurate polling requires a strong model to determine which voters will end up voting. Because people tend to overestimate their likelihood to vote in elections, this produces challenges and requires pollsters to make informed assumptions about how voters will behave. Using the tool below, you can explore how different turnout models change the forecasted results of each of these mayoral elections. (This tool is best viewed on desktop).