The Disillusioned Defectors

Following the success of the Sweden Democrats, the Brothers of Italy and National Rally, More in Common has used polling and focus groups across the country, to identify a new group of voters who could be tempted to vote for a party of the populist right in the UK.

This group of ‘Disillusioned Defectors’ are drawn largely from the Loyal National segment of the British Seven. Many of these voters switched from historic loyalty to the Labour Party to the Conservatives in 2019. 

However, a combination of increased economic uncertainty, the fallout from partygate and a perception that the Conservative Party has not yet fulfilled its promises on levelling up, crime and immigration, means these voters are now in the market for something new.

When asked about policies that made up a mock populist manifesto, this group of voters said they would support a party advocating all of the policies we tested – from leaving the European Court of Human Rights, to cancelling public sector DEI initiatives.

Only 10 per cent of the public support all of these policies, however this is almost double among the Loyal National swing group – and our focus group research suggests this is likely to be the floor not the ceiling of this support. On a series of specific policies tested, the Loyal National group has the highest levels of support of any group.

Winning the Disillusioned Defectors back 

The temptation for the Conservative Party might be to try and ape the policies of the populist right in order to win these voters back. However, our research suggests that even if this were successful, it would cost the Conservatives votes at the other end of their electoral coalition with the Established Liberals - the typical Blue Wall voter - who are more likely to say they would be less likely for a party which promised a series of these policies. 

Our research suggests the the best way to win back the trust of this group of Disillusioned Defectors is to: 

• Be clearer about how the plan for growth will benefit their families and not just the rich
• Delivering on key levelling up promises 
• Ensure the police get serious about ‘low level’ crime 
• Roll out a serious, credible plan for tackling immigration 

Fringe Event at Conservative Party Conference 2022

We’ll be discussing the new report, and more insights from the British Seven segments at our Conservative Party Conference Fringe Event  ‘From Workington Man to Waitrose Woman’  on Monday 3rd October 2022 at 15:30 in Room 106 Jury’s Inn.  

The fringe event will be an opportunity to hear directly from voters in our latest focus groups as well as expert analysis from our panel of experts:

• Rachel Wolf: Author of the 2019 Conservative Manifesto
• Salma Shah: Former Chief of Staff to the Home Secretary
• Marie le Conte: Author and Columnist
• Chaired by Bim Afolami, Conservative MP for Hitchin and Harpenden

Methodology

The quantitative part of the report consists of an online nationally representative survey of 2,010 adults across Great Britain. Fieldwork was carried out between 24th August - 28th August 2022. The survey was conducted by Public First. Public First is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. 

All results are weighted using Iterative Proportional Fitting, or ’Raking’. The results are weighted by interlocking age & gender, region and social grade to Nationally Representative Proportions.

Public First is a member of the BPC and abides by its rules. For more information please contact the Public First polling team: polling@publicfirst.co.uk

The qualitative part of the report consists of insights drawn from focus groups across the country. Focus group participants were recruited by independent recruiters and the groups were moderated by More in Common staff.