Following Labour's highly anticipated — and somewhat dreaded — Autumn Statement, polling by More in Common shows mixed public reactions. Alongside some highly popular policies and a small improvement in the government's approval ratings, the budget has left some Britons with a persisting sense of pessimism. Labour now faces the challenge of restoring the public's trust and delivering on their economic promises.
The verdict
The overall reaction to the budget appears to have been one of relief that things ‘weren’t as bad as they could have been’. Labour’s expectation management game - which saw seven in ten voters saying they were pessimistic about the Budget - has meant that more voters have seen the upside of the Budget than might otherwise be the case.
Overall people are more likely to think that the Budget will have a negative impact on the economy, and on the country as a whole.
While people are also more likely to think that the budget will have a negative impact on them personally, more than a third think it make no difference to them.
On all three counts, Labour voters are more likely to believe that the budget will have a positive impact.
Despite this negative assessment of the budget, there are a few tentative signs that the public's mood may be beginning to lift.
Since the budget, Keir Starmer's personal approval rating has bounced slightly, from a low point of -38 to -30. Meanwhile, Labour has regained their narrow lead in our latest voting intention.
Additionally, we've seen a slight drop in the number of people who feel that things are getting worse.
Which measures do the public like?
The most popular Budget measures are
- Raising the minimum wage +65 net support
- Increasing state pension payments by 4.1 per cent next year +60 net support
- Maintaining the 5p fuel duty cut for another year +54 net support
- Taxing vape liquids +53 net support
- Increasing NHS spending + 52 net support
The most unpopular measures are:
- Reducing the stamp duty threshold - 11 net support
- Making more farms eligible for inheritance tax -16 net support
- Subjecting unused pension pots to inheritance tax -23 net support
- Increasing the £2 cap on single bus fares - 35 net support
A Budget with many losers and no winners
Overall the public did not pick any of the groups we tested as winners from the Budget. Instead there were a series of losers.
The biggest losers were seen to be farmers, pensioners and small businesses, three groups who despite not tending to be core Labour voters themselves, do attract significant public sympathy and support.
An erosion of trust
The budget left many Britons with a sense that Labour have broken their promises: nearly half of the public think that Labour have breached their pledge not to put up taxes on working people - compared to just 29 per cent who think that they have kept that promise.
More than 4 in 10 voters say that the Budget has made them less likely to trust the Labour Party to stick to their promises, while 39 per cent trust Labour less to manage the economy.
A focus group of voters in Scunthorpe on Thursday described Labour's plan to raise employer National Insurance as "sneaky," seeing it as an indirect tax that would reduce their wages. As Labour attempt to restore trust, a key challenge will be ensuring that "sneaky" does not evolve into the more damaging charge of "dishonest."