4 July 2024
Polling predicts how Britain’s diverse voter base could swing at the general election
New polling has forecast how the UK’s different ethnic minority groups will likely be voting on Thursday, with the war in Gaza a major concern for 1 in 5 of the nation’s Asian voters.
Exclusive polling for The Independent by More In Common shows that Black voters are still far more likely to vote Labour than any other party and more than any other ethnicity.
3 July 2024
Luke Tryl, the executive director of More in Common, said: “With hours to go before polls opening, our latest MRP suggests the Conservative Party are heading for the worst result in their history, while Labour look set to achieve a record-breaking majority of their own.
But Mr Tryl went on to warn it would be “a mistake to assume that tomorrow doesn’t matter”, noting that more than 100 constituencies were still too close to call.
3 July 2024
Polling predicts how Britain’s diverse voter base could swing at the general election
Ed Hodgson, research manager at More In Common, said: “Labour looks set to match their strong national performance with a strong vote share among ethnic minority voters. Given the younger skew of this group, many of them will have voted Labour at every election since 2010, and never voted in a Labour Government.
Ethnic minority voters overwhelmingly think that a Labour government would make their life better, so this election marks the first chance for Labour to prove that this is the case.”
3 July 2024
A More in Common poll suggested Labour was on course for a majority of 210, while a YouGov study indicated Labour would get 431 seats and the Tories just 102.
3 July 2024
Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said the final result could still be very different as millions of voters have still to make up their minds.
He said: “With hours to go before polls opening our latest MRP suggests the Conservative Party are heading for the worst result in their history, while Labour look set to achieve a record-breaking majority of their own.
3 July 2024
On the plus side: it worked. In April, just 11% of people knew what Keir Starmer’s dad, a toolmaker, did for a living (he was a toolmaker); by June, after a relentless campaign of talking-about-the-toolmaker-thing, it was 27%, according to More in Common.